Burton Hockey Elo Ratings

Elo ratings are a relative skill rating system that estimates the probablity that one player will beat another player. Beat a player, and you take points from him; lose to a player, and he takes points from you. The better a player is, the more you are rewarded for beating them. Wikipedia has a long entry on Elo ratings here, but we'll show you with some JPEGs.

Take the last BUSH session, which we believe took place sometime in the mid-1990s. Terryn and Kyle tied for first, followed by Lee, Graeme, Nathan, KJ, and James.

Using the default K-value of 15:

'Expected' is the likelihood that one person will beat the other person based upon their initial rating. 'Actual' is the final result, which is either a win (1), a loss (0.5), or a draw (0). Their rating is adjusted based upon how much of that K-value they either won or lost to each person. It looks complicated with all the numbers but it's actually pretty damn simple. Much less complicated that the SDF, and more accurate since it recognises that larger sessions are harder to score in. You can imagine how many points change hand in a 5-on-5 session as opposed to a 2-on-2.

Plus, Elo ratings are an ALL-TIME statistic. While the SDF is only designed to look at a few sessions at a time to show you who's hot now (basically, it's like a TSN power ranking), Elo ratings take into account a player's entire career, creating an all-time hierarchy; a balance between how dominant a scorer is and how often they actually show it. Ratings do accrue slightly over time for good players who play often. Players who enter the system start with a provisional value of 1800 and move up or down from there. Once a player has three session under his/her belt, the rating is considered accurate.

Enough blather; here are the ratings after the most recent session (minimum three sessions skated).

Pat Elischer 2331
Kyle Grenier 2271
Andrew Smart 2213
Robert Rogers 2174
Lee Orr 2122
Ben de Wit 2113
Dallas Sinclair 2054
Stefan Klopp 2037
Lorne Bilinski 2037
Rob Hajdu 2033
Marcus Keighron 2025
Tony Hajdu 2002
Terryn Stenseth 2001
Troy Waldron 1987
Dustin Marchischuk 1982
K.J. O'Connor 1981
Eric Coutinho 1975
Seamus O'Connor 1972
Graeme Orr 1947
Mitchell Detta 1939
Brad Gibson 1938
Brandon Blair 1932
Oliver Koth-Kappus 1906
Joe Leonard 1904
Sam Lam 1900
Joe Chwachka 1895
Jeremy Roberts 1891
Jerod Warren 1884
Ryan Bateman 1867
Bryce Roberts 1867
Aaron Anderson 1854
Jared Currie 1847
Dominik Voser 1846
Dustin Blair 1843
Jordan Barlow 1838
Andy Kieran 1829
Nathan Wiebe 1827
Jared MacDonald 1821
Pedro Santos 1821
Jesse Cann 1821
Steve Weatherhead 1819
Andrew Cruden 1814
Nathan Robson 1813
Anthony Cowan 1812
Phil Chwachka 1810
Justin Gordon 1809
Darrel Voser 1809
Jason Leung 1807
Patrick Strachan 1805
Ryan Disterheft 1800
Jesse Martin 1796
Dylan Stevens 1790
Melvin Ong 1778
Thomas Slivinski 1771
Kyle Currie 1768
Andrew Likness 1757
Dorian Turner 1745
James Hewlitt 1717
Scotty Edison 1716
Shaylin Trotman 1714
Griff Jones 1707
Laird Bilinski 1703
Ryan Adshead 1702
Dane Olsen 1701
Steve Cain 1701
Noel Ballard 1695
Mitch Zorn 1693
Shem Hanna 1692
Gordon Trousdell 1688
Tony Sivilay 1686
Ondrej Par 1685
Scott Britton 1670
Karl Detta 1670
Forrest Harding 1662
Chris Jackins 1661
Dylan Hascarl 1660
Mitch Peterson 1658
Simon Hilton 1644
Lars Raynard 1636
Colby Olsen 1631
Jackson Hewer 1605
Joern Hornhardt 1601
Vincent Garcia 1593
Bernie Koth-Kappus 1582
Andrew George 1566
Andrew Watson 1550
Jordan Downey 1542

And, these are the provisional ratings so far for players with only one or two sessions under their belts:

Stewart Watson 1872
Isaac Saban 1850
Derrick Feiertag 1848
Brian Morrow 1844
Carter Barron 1823
Travis Rebman 1819
Duncan Mathieson 1817
Isaac Schroeder 1814
Jesse Gimbel 1813
Luke Krbyla 1805
Tyson Klein 1805
Ken Guthrie 1803
Rishad Daroo 1803
Mike Menard 1802
Stevie Fergusson 1797
Ryan Struck 1791
Jamie Coates 1791
Nick Reitmeier 1786
Ben Jokiert 1784
Garrit Krbyla 1783
James Inglis 1782
Anthony Watson 1780
Zac Friedenberger 1779
Kalum Stevens 1778
Doug Posnick 1773
Stuart Hall 1773
Caleb Gronert 1773
Carter Stenseth 1772
Charles Hethey 1771
Gavin Gentles 1770
Kevin Gander 1767
Marcus Aurelius 1766
Viktor Jedeskog 1766
Jamil Mithwani 1765
Andrew Lee 1763
Jordan Trenholm 1762
Josh Wilson 1761
Dan Wood 1758
Kimberly McPhee 1754
Andrew Martens 1754
Mat Buick 1754
Prairie Chiau 1753
Terry Cameron 1750
Randy Zarr 1750
Brandon Olson 1747
Jason Edward Shaw 1743
Lyle Detta 1736
Raymond Trinh 1735
Sabrina Nymeyer 1734
Brendan Langley 1733
Albert Ulanday 1732
Bruno Irrelevante 1728
Ian Bock 1720
Shane Bilinski 1720
Randy Zarr Jr. 1720
Ken Hyu 1720
Nick Sundstrom 1717
Chung Chiu 1705
Gavin Kiyono 1703
Sebastian Wearmouth 1703
Aaron Grierson 1698
Ryan MacDonald 1698
Monika Nymeyer 1675
Paul Irrelevante 1660

rob wrote on November 08, 2011 @ 01:20:05 PST
So where does your starting Elo Rating come from, and why is your K value 15?
rob wrote on November 08, 2011 @ 01:09:40 PST
I don't get Elo yet and will read the wiki, but it must work: Elischer's at the top. Props on the number KK
js- wrote on September 27, 2011 @ 23:51:05 PST
holy balls that sounds like a lot of work gj kyle!

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